Navigating the 2026 Grain Market

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You're listening to the podcast for grain merchandisers by grain merchandisers. Join us in our good

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humored attempt to serve as a voice of reason in an industry fraught with misconceptions and halftruths. And now

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from deep in America's heartland, this is the Elevator's Cut.

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Hello and welcome back to another episode of The Elevators Cut. I am one of your hosts, Roger Gatis, and I am your other hosts, Jason Wheeler. And

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today we have a special guest, friend of the show, back on the show, first time in video format. Susan, we thank you for

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uh coming all the way over to this other side of Missouri. Well, that's actually Kansas. It's so Missouri. It's Kansas over here.

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And uh anyways, we got Susan back. You have helped us so much in the past uh as we try to decipher many things on the

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internet. Uh we have lovingly referred to our text conversation as the GMD editorial board, I think.

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Yeah.

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Um so GMD is grain market discussion. I I like just But is it really?

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I like rambling this on and she can't say anything yet. This is great. Uh, Susan, welcome to the show.

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We're glad you're here.

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I hope the camera wasn't on my face right then. Yeah, because the ironic thing about our text group being called GMD discussion is that I was kicked out of there a few years ago.

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Out of GMD, not our text group. Correct. Okay. So, it's up to you guys to fill me in. So, what I I don't even Facebook him.

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I'm out here for the people. I'm investigating. I'm monitoring situations, right? You are.

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It's out here. Okay. So, anyways, but speaking of monitoring situations,

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Susan is always our uh top I guess intel to the world of markets because people

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Susan people are passionate about the markets out here. And Roger is the most passionate person I know about the markets

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and uh so much so I only have one monitor.

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We don't really know what it means to be passionate about the markets. But you wake up early every day to get into the

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markets, right? So tell us about that about today for instance.

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About today. Yeah. For instance. So how did that go?

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Should we talk about me typing up something about the corn market and then at the same time that Donald Trump

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ruined what I had typed up about the corn market, my six-year-old was yelling from the couch that she needed donuts right away. We didn't have donuts. So, I

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think the last the last few weeks have probably been some of the more frustrating than I can remember of my

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entire career. And it's just because it's you can be as prepared as possible

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fundamentally or even knowing all of the things that have happened and transpired over a particular period of time and

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then within two minutes it can be turned completely upside down and absolutely irrelevant. So

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I guess the past several weeks it's been humbling just as a lovely reminder that when you just when you think you know

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you maybe don't know but then also just a lesson in what you know what real volatility and uncertainty can be.

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Now you think that's frustrating. This podcast isn't going to come out for like a month.

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Yeah. I I I kind of I was thinking that as I threw that all in there. But yeah,

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you know, the only thing out of this podcast that really doesn't need a lot of editing would be Roger's hair because he's the only one that's not wearing a hat here.

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This is true. And I mean, it's obvious.

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I wear I wear hats a lot because I only have to fix the bottom half of my hair.

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I only need to be concerned about this part. But I mean, when if I had a head of hair like that and the volume, I I

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really feel like I would never wear a hat again.

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I feel like this guy brings his own shampoo to hotels. I mean, come on. Let's be honest. You do? Absolutely not.

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I feel like that's possibly a fib. No, it's not.

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I had to work really hard to make sure that I didn't say a word that would get bleeped out. Oh, feel free, please.

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I don't want to test it.

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It actually I know what will happen with you guys. You will, if I say a vulgar word that needs to get bleeped out, you

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will put like a goat scream or something in its place. Look, we won't. Randy will. Yes. So, yeah.

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Quick aside on the hats. One, I am wearing a Roth uh Roth Grains hat, which

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is just south of town here in Harrisonville. Uh, thanks to Dennis Roth for sending the hat via Roger uh that I

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could wear on the show. So big uh big shout out to fantastic Roth Grains and um anyways and Susan, you're wearing a

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hat that says no bull. Now this is a Tom Brady hat or what is that?

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Oh, here comes the second point where someone will have to interject with the goat screaming.

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That's that's all we're known about around here.

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You know, one of these days maybe I don't know. I I still feel like noble noble agriculture is probably not quite on the radar.

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Yeah. But well, I I was poorly executed,

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but I was I was say go ahead and tell us about No Bull, I guess, a little bit.

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Sure. So, um not quite the uh not the athletic apparel.

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Uh Tom Brady, what's happened to him recently? He's playing flag football. last I saw. What?

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I know, but it's Why can't these people just stay retired?

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I I kind of meant like the plastic surgery.

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Oh, he's the things that were Yeah. feel like he's changed, but anyway, we're off.

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We're We're way off now. Noble is uh started out kind of email subscription

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service and it still is providing grain and oil seed market commentary. I talk a lot about bofuel policy which is my

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least favorite thing in the world but it turns out it's very in demand the people want to love that I got yeah you know it becomes it's

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something that you love to hate um people always ask me about it I'm like you should talk to Susan she knows Susan's like I don't want to talk funny

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how that goes but you know about it so you have to uh you wake up one day and you realize you're so far deep in it that you can't

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get back out. Yeah. So providing market intelligence for everything that would be from producer level to manage money

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or investors that kind of thing. Um it's also it's branched out into well I do a

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lot of uh speaking engagements and that sort of thing. So hanging out here in Kansas City to moderate an ethanol panel

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of all things at Bloomberg Bloomberg's event this week.

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Awesome. Um, but and I should congratulate you. Part of us doing podcasts and I should congratulate you. I know you were campaigning for votes for podcasts.

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Well, you here we go. You're apparently my uh my cryptocurrency hackers on X.

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I saw you bought a new house and got a new car. Congrats.

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Yes. Yeah. Lots of exciting things happening for me. Um,

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we don't want to get too including including being hacked a few times in the past couple months. Unfortunately,

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told me about the fact that you have a physical key to get on Twitter now, which blew my mind. It's incredible.

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Yeah. Yeah. It's amazing what you can buy on Amazon. I don't know that that actually fixes the problem trying to prevent.

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I think Jeff Bezos and Elon were having a conference call one day. Uh just the two of them on a conference call as they

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do and they're like, you know, we got to sell something so that we can get somebody into their Twitter account. So,

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this is like reverse NFT things, right?

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I don't know. It's real key for social media.

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All right. So, back on track. Um, I'm back into my X account. So, the other things that that Noble does, really

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excited this year for Agranax, this will be our the fourth annual conference in St. Louis. So, it is July 27th and 28th

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if you want to put that on your calendar. But this year, it is presented in partnership with Bloomberg. So, um,

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that's exciting. Bringing some of the Bloomberg intelligence team will be there to moderate along with me, okay,

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which is good. Um, we're doing the welcome reception this year at Annheiser Bush. So, little private event in the beer garden. We will do a little tour,

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see some horses. Yeah, absolutely.

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Uh, full day conference will be at Ballpark Village again adjacent to Bush Stadium. And then

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it is timed for the Cards Cubs series that last week of July. So it'll be a fun game. The Cardinals will be absolutely murdered, but that's okay.

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Maybe not. I feel like I said murdered and you guys are going to be like, "Well, it's St. Louis,

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right after Well, that's true. That happens every night.

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I think it will it will be a good event." The other piece of Noble would be a ventures. So I've gotten into

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international group trips. I just showed you guys over lunch. Unbelievable.

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A terrifying video of us taking a massive luxury bus across this little teeny tiny wooden bridge, which was

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quite exciting. But I'll be going back the first week of August.

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Are you going to take the bridge portion out of that?

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I'm not certain. We will not be in an area to go across that particular bridge, but it is Brazil, so that means that there's a particular level of

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excitement that you will encounter. You never know around every corner. But this one includes oranges, coffee, we'll be

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there for sugarcane harvest. So we'll see the actual sugar side of production and then ethanol too.

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Um then we will go into Monagroso Dul where it's uh heavy cattle country and we will be there for Sophia corn harvest

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and then we end in Bonito which is one of the most beautiful places on the planet. It's right there in the word, right?

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So yes, correct. So, I'm excited about that one.

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So, Roger and I spent a lot of time on this show talking about like, you know,

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what are people worried about the markets and you know, who cares? And that's cuz we have the elevator slant where it's just always stay price neutral and who cares what happens. But obviously,

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that's not the best way to don't phrase it like that. There's a there's a big sector of the uh of the a uh economy

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industry that obviously it it matters a whole lot to and for those reasons Brazil's huge huge factor. So it's it's

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cool to like go see that stuff close up because yeah you if you're if you're in that world and you're paying attention to that sort of stuff every day,

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Brazil's like in it every day, right? I mean so um that's kind of cool.

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Hash agro never stops. I saw that once or twice. Is that right? Yeah. Or eight times. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. In the early winter,

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January, February of 27, I'll be doing two separate trips to Brazil. And then I have Argentina in early March.

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Oh, nice. Calendar, too. So, yeah. Yes. In the USA.

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Yeah. So, I don't know. I think it's I think there's a lot of value that comes from seeing I'm a very visual learner

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and I I think that that probably that's fairly obvious and the business that I've built. It's really interesting when

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you get to go beyond the well I'm reading about this to I'm actually seeing it and understanding it. Being in

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Modroso Brazil gives you an entirely different appreciation and understanding. In the US, I think we always the American farmer, it's always,

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well, it's Brazil, it's our enemy or whatever. But, and I think some people really struggle understanding why would you even want to go see that or

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experience it. But it's having respect for this massive I mean, they're not going away.

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Oh, no.

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They're bigger. They export more than us. They produce more. Whatever it may be. I think that understanding markets is about understanding your largest

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competitors and having respect for what they do and and then trying to understand the differences because there are so many differences. There are a lot

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of ways that there are similarities between producers and there are a lot of there's so many things about um their setup that's so much different. And you

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know, as we talk about today and then probably in the weeks and months ahead as we're working through this situation

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in the Middle East from a transportation perspective and competit, you know,

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being competitive, the US is fortunate that we have the the cheapest transportation in the world. So forever

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it's been the inland waterways system has provided this incredibly efficient and economical transportation mechanism

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for us. And that's a lot of why the US and agg we've been the dominant force that we have been. And now we have this

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shift underway because we have this energy price spike that you know let's say maybe conflict is resolve fairly

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soon. You still have these markets that I think will be very disjointed for a while. Those impacts of like the higher

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diesel prices and things those are hitting places like Brazil much harder than they're hitting us here in the US.

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And so understanding some of those things, the drivers behind it, I think that that's a lot of what helps shape

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your understanding of the bigger picture markets.

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What is one thing if you had to pick one that you would I'm going to ask you.

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What is one thing about South American producer that most people in the US at least even in a wouldn't know or

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appreciate? I think what a lot of people don't realize is, you know, Migroso is 40 plus% of Brazil's total production.

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It's massive and it's because it's an area thing that's massive. But also um those producers there like in the 80s

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when the US was going through a farm crisis, those were the years that Brazilian producers were actually literally just starting to kind of take

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root in those areas that are now the biggest production areas in the world.

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So it's a different setup because it's not like you know in the US you have a lot of century farms and things where

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you've had multiple generations and in a lot of cases you have a guy that's in his um mid60s or something that he was

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the first one in his family that really bought ground or established roots there. It's much different. The other thing that's I think the probably the

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biggest fundamental difference is you know in the US it's 1% of the population or something is employed in agriculture.

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In Brazil it's something like 8%.

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So when you look at equipment and I'm not saying that they're not as advanced as they could possibly be but from an

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automation perspective we're a lot further ahead but it's because we don't have as many bodies working. they have a

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tremendous amount of labor on the farm and then also seasonal labor that comes in and they keep their equipment a lot

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longer. Um, equipment is not necessarily contrary to maybe some of the things that you see on social media. Equipment isn't

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necessarily as large or something. And so, yeah, it's a it's just a completely different setup. So although one of my

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favorite pictures from this past trip in February is this producer that was 10,000 no I don't remember what it was

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but large family producer bigger guy he's got a John Deere hat on smiling you know he gets out his Sunday

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polo with his best blue jeans when we visit the farm he has a John Deere bottle opener you can see kind of in the

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background like attached the wall and then he's got this big bolson arrow sticker which is the equivalent of having a trunk bumper sticker.

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So things like that like are very similar, but from an operational standpoint, it's just it's a very different setup.

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Plus, here in the US, we have we have relatively cheap we have cheap interest compared to what they have. So the their

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way of operating is much different. And you know, anytime that you're in a situation, I see it a lot here in the US, especially with guys, seems like

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guys that have livestock, they tend to generally make better business decisions because a lot of times they're more, and you might argue with me, but they're I

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feel like they're forced into making decisions a little more regularly than some of the grain guys because you can

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store and ignore for cattle and chickens die eventually.

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So, you know, and they got to eat them all the time. So I think that there are some of those things even though you know we might say today well 7% or 8%

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interest in the US is horrible and we can't operate this way. Totally different story when you get that part of the world and so yeah longest answer ever.

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No it's great.

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I could I could ramble for a while. It's really interesting when you start to look at the look at the differences but but I think it's very important. You

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have to understand, you know, no different than you have to understand how the US farmer operates. You also have to understand how the Brazilian producer operates. And that's really one

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thing that's becoming more and more important as we move forward. It's not necessarily about a matter of well, is it 180 million metric tonses or 183?

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It becomes more farmer behavior and what moves those bushels and those sorts of things. So, you've had several tours now

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um under your belt going down there and prior to you going down there pri to to all this in your former career.

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What has been or what do you see when you take folks down there for the first time? What's kind of their big like I wasn't expecting X

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Moso is just it's very expansive. It you are wide open. Um, it's crazy because it

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can go go from like very very flat to kind of rolling and things, but I think what strikes people the most is you see

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these massive facilities. It could be an ADM or a bunggei or an emi or whatever,

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but it's it's literally everything is bigger. It's kind of like the idea of in Texas, in the US, everything is bigger.

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In Brazil, when when you get into Migroso, everything is bigger. Mhm.

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So, you just have a lot there are a lot of moments where you're like, "Holy." Yeah. Yeah. Awesome.

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And um emuse in the bean fields, but yeah. Really?

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Yes. It's things that you know the things that you would beans.

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Yeah. It's no different than how we see white tailed deer. Yeah.

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And they're kind of they can kind of be hard to spot. It's no different than the, you know, you need to be Wait, how tall are the beans down there?

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I've seen an emu. They're they're pretty tall. They can bend down. Tall, but I don't know. It blends in.

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You're going down the road at however many kilome. How do you say emu in Spanish?

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It's port. It'd be Portuguese. And I don't know. I don't know if it's xenophobic, Jason. I thought that was the same language,

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but you know, here we go. No, that's that's the other thing about visiting Brazil. If you're going

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it I don't care if you were going to because it when you get into S. Paulo,

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the one of it is the largest um metropolitan area in the Western Hemisphere

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and you can even be in the international terminal and struggle to find someone that's speaking English. Really?

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Yes. So, this is a this is a plug for myself. Don't go by yourself. You need friends. That Wait, you don't speak other languages?

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I know enough Portuguese to get me. Yeah.

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Wow. Were we supposed to talk about actual topics today?

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We had foreign languages on this show before. We're We are Someone came on and said they'd ate at Fogo to show the Brazilian steakhouse.

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We had Kevin Wilson said uh French words on here before. I think I had Did I maybe

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Oh, you know what? I I took my I took grandma to a steakhouse a few months ago that she wanted to go to and she wants the snails and I'm like,

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"Okay, I'll Did you partake?" Never again. One and done.

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Now, you have lots, Speaking of of your grandma, you have lots of pictures. Y'all celebrate all kinds of things,

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which I think is awesome. Well, you're supposed to. If you make it to 86, you just have to keep Margarita fan. Yes.

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Yeah. She went to She went to the gym this morning with my mom at 7. She went earlier than normal. She does the We're

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We're a year in now. She goes to personal training twice a week with me. Awesome.

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That's awesome. So, Noble does personal training, too. I No, I feel like you're saying it too fast.

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My noble salary pays for personal training. Speaking of noble, maybe you

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might have to bleep it out, but it's funny. So, I was in uh I was in Singapore.

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Sensors the sensors ready, Randy? All right. Okay.

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Should I Can I look? I'll look straight into the camera. So, I was in um I did a CME event in Singapore and then I was also at an event in Koala Lumpur,

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Malaysia.

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Roger, you ever been invited to that event? I had turned down every time.

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That's just always the conflict of schedule.

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So that was my first time hanging out in Southeast Asia. And so I had business cards and the whole kind of thing and

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I'm talking to a lot of different traders from, you know, different like actual like physical trading houses

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and on more Oh my god. No, I can't say this.

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You can please dear. I mean, we're we've come this far.

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You might You guys have to Okay. Well, you'll have to figure out if this works for you or not. So, yeah, we

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probably I should not say this. So, more than once I would hand them a business card and they would look at it and they'd see like the bull horns and stuff and then they'd go, "Oh, no [censored]."

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Yes, that's right.

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That is correct. Okay, you can edit all of that out now. And we're back next to the two minutes. Yeah, that didn't need to happen. Okay,

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that's called a cultural exchange.

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I That's what it Yes, but I had I had several encounters.

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You know what I hear? I hear smiles the same in every language. So,

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that was the cheesiest thing I've ever heard that was worse than he Hey, I speaking of that, I did have something about a corn smile that happened in America.

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Let's not talk about that. I don't know.

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Wait, wait. Is this almost This is like reminiscent of corn sweats, but it's a smile. H I forgot about corn. Hey, before we get into corns,

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I didn't since we have a soybean expert here that goes to Brazil. Um we had Sorry,

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listen up. So, we we had a few years back a lot of people building bean processing plants.

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Now they've now they're built now.

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They're we're mostly we're Yeah, they're getting there.

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We're turning through it. So is there should we look at beans differently in America now versus we how we did 10 years ago?

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Um I think that's fair you know this year and it kind of depends on where the bad thing is is if we don't see China

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come back to to buy additional beans in the the 2526 marketing year. Yeah. This

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this year is projected to be the first year in effectively two decades that we

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see uh 60% of US bean demand domestic

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for crush and only 40% export. So and you know the past 5 years or so it's been a combination of things. So it's

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not only you have Brazil getting larger or producing more and that you know that relationship with China, you also have

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the increase in US domestic crush capacity which is influential. So when anytime that you have more demand here

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domestically, it naturally kind of raises whatever the export bid would have to be because you're competing. And

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then the other thing that I think has to be considered as we were in our fourth year in a row of historically low water

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conditions on the inland waterway system. So those things all in combination,

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you know, any day of the week someone can be like, "Oh, well it's crush or it's Brazil's size." Uh it's a little

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more complicated than that because the these things all kind of stack, right?

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It's a big deal for the US. you especially when you look at a state like North Dakota who previously didn't have

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any crushing capacity. Now you have two crush plants that are crushing 90 nearly 100 million bushels a year. That's 50%

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effectively of North Dakota's bean crop in any given year.

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That's a big change and especially in a year like this.

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Really big change because they didn't have the P&W,

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right? Where else would the beans went if that wasn't and I still am a very firm believer that one of the reasons that we the P USPW

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stayed so competitive in Asia it's a combination of the fact we had no bean program so you had um discounted rail

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freight and you have open you know open capacity what what's your job as an elevator it doesn't matter if you're an exporter or if you are a country

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elevator your job is to have bushels ship bushels, otherwise you're not making money.

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Um, and the other piece of that is a really big crop that came out of that part of the world this year, too,

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which I still think that they'll go,

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we could argue this here, but I feel like a farmer, you know, a farmer has a memory and the last really good crop sticks in their mind. So, if corn

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treated them well last year and spring wheat is just sucking air, right, that's where my mind is today.

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Nice. So, okay, I I referenced before probably poorly because that's what I do. Um, Roger and I are like, you know, prices,

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you know, who really cares on the on the commercial side, but obviously love saying that, you know, hey, listen,

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hey, he's got to stick. He's got to stick with it. Stick with the stick.

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It's called a brand. All right. Um but anyway anyways no we we uh like Marriott we think you know because like the the

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white commercial thing is like you know this is noise and this is not but there's noise and there's information right and and uh I guess

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you know 30 years ago it was like who could get the best information kind of had an advantage. Now everybody gets all the information. It's who can filter out

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the to get to the right information. Too much information,

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right? Which is what you kind of do and I think with all the stuff you put out. Yeah.

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And the other thing you do is that I think is good it because of your background. You have a commercial like a country elevator a big grain trading

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background like you understand that side of it as well. Not just the hey this is going to affect the markets the price markets. And I know you're passionate

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about the markets as we all are, but especially Roger and any anyways all that said and how things have shifted in the beans with like domestic crush and

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then the disruptions on export and everything.

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How do you see that? Obviously there's obvious ramifications on the price side but on the basis side so I would say

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like when we approach basis as just you know strict basis traders on the commercial grain elevator side is like

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hey basis gets low at harvest time I think that's still a thing so that's good right uh we buy it at at harvest

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basis and usually with beans it's a 30 to 60 day deal and then basis recovers

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probably around like just about wherever you are late Novemberish there's a pretty strong basis just about anywhere

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because of the the costs of carrying beans even if there's carry in the market doesn't really pay you to keep carrying it past that so that's been the

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traditional like didn't you have something in your notebook about those the when it doesn't pay to you look at those notebooks I'll get to

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that we got time okay but anyway my my point is with all this shift in how we're doing thing how beans are flowing these days in America America. Do you

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foresee that any difference there? And especially with Brazil coming on, it's almost like we get new crop again in like the spring. New crop again in the spring,

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right? Like the the spreads get flat and they go to big carries. I mean, when I started out, you fall in love with your beans, have them sold by Valentine's.

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My point is, do you do you see anything different than bas Yeah, it kind of like this year it's we're set up to have an

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interesting run here. So when you look at the crush capacity that we've added and we're saying this, you know, right

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before we're getting into April maintenance down times, like we've seen strength in the meal market recently because

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I think everyone's a little nervous that we have these maintenance downing times that are coming on and we're going to have this tightness that's going to last for a while.

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Yeah, it's different because when you have exports um you're talking very heavy anov

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jan and then doesn't really matter after that but when you're crushing especially when you have a new asset or an expanded

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asset you want to use it and so it I think yeah it does it changes flow and it changes the um the dynamics of things

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where the US needs more bushels around in those um spring and summer months

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compared to what we used to need because we have we're crushing 20% more beans.

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We need it around. Is that going to be given by the price or by the basis? Like I it's so the loudest sigh. Yeah.

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For an elevator to like power through and carry beans a long time because it's just so expensive.

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Yeah. It's Hey, no. July hit like 50 cents at one point last fall.

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Well, the other thing is I mean there's going to be so many beans as well that that guys don't buy at harvest time and they're on storage and buy later in the year.

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They're all gone now. So I mean but well you and and you have crushers that are actively they are taking big healthy

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crush margins and they're also very actively adding space because when you build a new plant or

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when you're expanding capacity you're not just aiming for what are my margins here. You're aiming to take

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advantage of a situation later on. Yes. especially when you have continued strength and demand from a product perspective.

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Would you be comfortable building a crush plant in the south or in the Delta if things change that much?

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So, I think the the bigger thing is that once something is legislated, we have to keep

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legislating it. So assuming that we see some some high numbers here for 27 and

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28, do you want to build a crush plant that probably wouldn't start construction until nope.

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Let's just say 29 or whatever, you know,

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and it kind of it also goes back to like 45Z. We've extended that through the end of 2029. That's fine. But

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today we're, you know, how far ahead you got to be? We're quickly closing in on one half of 26 being done. So then then

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what? Then where do you go? Bofuels aren't going away. And the more that um you know the the more that we push forward with policy that supports them,

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which I understand why we're pushing that direction. And it's almost to the point with Brazil doing what it's doing that we have to be there. But yeah, I

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think it's a challenge because not only and especially in this type of environment, we're sitting here waiting

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for some sort of decision. We're also looking at interest rates aren't what they were in 2021.

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And you know, there are a lot of other things to consider. So, when we first had that big push or that big rush of

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announcements and such, we had really low interest rates. It didn't it didn't matter that much anyway and it matters a lot more today.

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Does it seem like some of this the policy this is a policy question or a thought I guess these are my favorite things.

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I know that's why I'm asking. I knew you came here. You told us that a lecture.

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I need to just carry a mug around. I love bofuel policy.

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Well, this is just general a policy. You know, the farm bill keeps getting kicked down the road every year or every time it's talked about, right? We just keep extending continuing resolution or

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whatever they whatever the terms are. Is this kind of policy the new way to to legislate farm bill things in a

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roundabout manner because it's less transactional costs in Congress?

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Well, I mean, I think from a the perspective of EPA and what they're set

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to do here with the renewable fuel standard um obligate mandate for 27 and 28.

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This is definitely more of EPA setting to um correct the course because really what happened is they grossly

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underestimated the way that California would expand or the way that anyone would expand renewable diesel

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production. It was really Arnold Schwarzenegger and the lowcarbon fuel standard that set all of it off. But that's really what made the difference

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and why we were out producing the mandate by a mile or two or five. Um, so

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that's really the biggest change that kind of comes out of this. Also, you have an administration that is

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determined to um, show his undying support for rural America. And you can

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even think all the way back to the tweet that he did. It was the commodity classic of 2025. I can remember walking around.

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Hey, I was there. The golden tractor.

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Yes, that is correct. and he said, you know, and this was in the middle of when he was starting to pick fights with every major trading partner. This was

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before the liberation day and we were tariff putting tariffs on the penguins and such.

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But he said, you know, get ready to sell as you know, a lot of product inside and he capitalized inside the US. So with

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that being said, like this is great and this administration is definitely although it doesn't feel like it a lot

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of days they're behind the farmer. It's just getting to that I understand what you're saying when you

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say he's behind the farmer. I understand what you're saying,

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you know. But then let's also although it feels like it is 18 years away that he won't be in office, one of these days

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he won't be in office. So then we're the end of March 2026. So he's been in

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office 12, 13, 14ish months. That When did he come down the escalator? I mean, that's that's when it all started.

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Am I right?

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I've aged a good 20 years since he was inaugurated just because it's no different than this

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morning. It's we think we're headed one direction and then you get one truth social post and here we go the completed opposite way.

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It's really hard. And I was convinced on my drive from,

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you know, St. Louis, this area to Kansas City that we would be in and out of World War III like four times by the time I actually got here today. So, it's really challenging because I don't know.

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So this is the thing like and you know Roger and I are big proponents of farmers like I don't know we're not good enough at even trying to keep up with

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the information. So we're like just put in targets and maybe it'll maybe something will tweet weird and we'll get it and weird the other the other what

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last last week you know we're limit weeks ago. Yeah. When Sunday not everything hit and everything goes up.

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Yeah. Everything goes down really got to get up to get down. That was in a song.

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That's right. And but you feel like, oh my gosh, this is going bonkers one way,

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then it's bonkers the other, and then you look overall like I don't know. I guess we did have a big up day. We had a big down. We're about where we were we were in the end.

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But it's good. You need stuff to happen.

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It gets people excited. They take action.

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That's what I'm saying. The volatility does create that huge overnight run up because I think that was one Sunday

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night and then it was the next one where it was like elevator down, but we really had an elevator up moment. normally you don't have that. But yeah, that's the

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value of having something out there. But just the same as we had, you know, it felt like the end of the world when we

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had that limit down day, but common sense says we're not going to be limit down forever

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because the same magnitude of headline will the exact opposite is going to come out tomorrow

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and then maybe the opposite after that and then eventually we're going to find a place because you do some one-on-one advising with farm. At least you used to. Have

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you have you cut that out? You still do it occasionally?

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I still I still I feel that like the conversations get more and more colorful with each passing week.

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Actually, it's like therapy sessions and I don't know who I don't know who it's therapy for. Me or them?

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Yeah. Well, especially two-way therapy. Yes. Yeah. Well, as your business has grown,

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it's it's less and less of like a a percentage of what you need. So, you're brutally honest with people. I don't think that's ever been a problem for you, honestly.

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I think it's really important though to take which the producers that I'm thankfully the ones I've never had to

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fire a customer. Uh they've kind of gone away on their own, which has been a good thing. But I think it's really it's

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important for me to keep having those conversations because it's a reality check and a sanity check for me, too.

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Because the things, it's so funny because when you get into these days where I'm like, how did I end up in this

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spot where I'm trying to tell other people what to do and I don't even know what's going on. But when I get the most nervous about situations, I always

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revert like back to the very basics, the things that I learned at the country

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elevator when I'm, you know, I'm reading my white commercial things. Look at that. Full circle. There you go.

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And I Yeah, I wasn't just trying to suck up. It's But it really is it when you get into these points where you feel like you're a fish out of water. you

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don't know what you're doing or the uncertainty is so the screaming so loud you have no idea. It goes back to, well,

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okay, my last sale was 50 cents ago. Why am I not selling something today? Or,

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you know, you can walk through these things a million ways in your mind. And I do think that that's a lot of why um

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from a producer perspective I enjoy still having producer clients because we can have those conversations

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and I can say Kevin you haven't sold anything in 3 weeks and we are x higher than we were

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the last time. This makes sense. Like you said, that's good therapy for you,

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too, because, you know, otherwise you might end up, you know, find yourself on a Southwest flight with a therapy cat. Yes.

359
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:55,000
And I don't know what that would be like, but I assume it would not be good.

360
00:40:55,000 --> 00:41:04,000
No. Being able to have real conversations with producers is it becomes invaluable. I think it doesn't

361
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:11,000
matter if you're sitting in a country elevator or if you are getting ready to take the stage wherever at the end of

362
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:19,000
the day, it's it's the the pulse of the farmer that matters and can make a lot of

363
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:25,000
difference. So like we got the customer in Georgia that says he can't make money off of broke farmers.

364
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:27,000
No, he says you can't milk a skinny cow fat.

365
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:29,000
Okay, that also but that's what it means.

366
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:38,000
But yeah, he can't make money off Absolutely right. If the farmer's not doing well making money, none of us are going to be doing well, right? So, so it starts there. So, okay, along those

367
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:45,000
lines for we got a lot of farmers listen, but also grain folks listen to our podcast. We hope more, but I don't

368
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:55,000
know the map for the young grain originator that maybe listens to this occasionally. Right now, they're seeing all this weird stuff going on.

369
00:41:55,000 --> 00:42:03,000
How do they what should they be talking you know like your conversations you have with direct farmers like what should they be doing to kind of help

370
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:10,000
their farmers through this weird noise volatility stuff and focus on the right things or like what should they be doing? What should they think about?

371
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:18,000
Yeah, it seems like such an easy out but I can remember back to the days I didn't know anything about what I was talking

372
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:22,000
about and I would always revert back to well what's your cost of production?

373
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:30,000
Well, as soon as I'd say that, generally the producer would be quiet because most of the time they can't tell you anyway, right?

374
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:37,000
I think you have to you have to frame it like, okay, well, this is a business decision

375
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:46,000
and sometimes it can help you tee it up when you say, "Well, when did you sell last?" or something along those lines.

376
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:54,000
As odd as it sounds, I feel like it takes a very confident individual to be able to say, "I don't know." Right. It does absolutely happen.

377
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:57,000
People are afraid to say that even though that's hard,

378
00:42:57,000 --> 00:43:07,000
I think. And that's a lot of why I like to do uh Hardy's um USDA report webinar for his group

379
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:13,000
because the point that I make throughout that is you can't predict what you can't predict,

380
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:17,000
right? So, I think I feel like a lot of people will have that pressure,

381
00:43:17,000 --> 00:43:26,000
especially as we head into the next few reports that will have acres because people are going to feel like we should know.

382
00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:33,000
Well, my argument is what was our starting point before we maybe had a fertilizer thing. Exactly.

383
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:42,000
Because I could argue that we should maybe have more corn acres and then it looks like we're going to patch it up with China.

384
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:49,000
And so, okay, maybe there's a resurgence in beans and now we we have crappy cotton prices and rice prices and well,

385
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:56,000
there's maybe a few more beans and then here comes the fertilizer conundrum and I don't know.

386
00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:59,000
And then how old's the data that went into the survey? Roger and I see. So,

387
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:07,000
yes, that's exact. That's the thing. And to top it all off, how many extra acres of corn did we might manage to find here

388
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:17,000
over the past however many reports? as much as they need to know where we're going to be and how accurate we're going to be because I don't have a clue.

389
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:25,000
And and Roger and I have to deal with this a lot cuz we're technically brokers. But obviously we told you our thing. We like ah prices don't matter.

390
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:27,000
You're the oddest brokers I've ever met.

391
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:34,000
But since we are the best hair though, I know a lot of bald brokers. But people call us and they're like,

392
00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:36,000
"What's the report? What's the market going to do tomorrow with the report?"

393
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:42,000
And we're like, are have you ever listened to us talk to us before? And uh we're like, we don't we don't know.

394
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:49,000
People think like we you should have an idea. And okay, make you feel dumb for not having one.

395
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:57,000
My thing is if I was very confident and felt like I knew and told you, what are you going to do? If you were a real broker. Yeah. Well,

396
00:44:57,000 --> 00:45:01,000
I just want to say, do you want to like lay out the risk?

397
00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:09,000
What was the risk? What was the disclaimer? You wrote down the disclaimer earlier. Um, somebody somebody at a conference I have been to

398
00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:13,000
said, hang on, I'm gonna I want to quote it here. I don't want to get it wrong. I know.

399
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:19,000
Past performance does not indicate future results in my opinion.

400
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:21,000
Somebody said that. That was one of the best quotes I've heard.

401
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:24,000
You know, that's so good. I might start putting at the bottom of my emails.

402
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:29,000
That's really good. But I hope that was worth 75 bucks a contract or whatever.

403
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:34,000
My my point is like her side. Why?

404
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:40,000
Even if we knew, even if Roger and I knew what the was going to say and we had a really strong opinion, I'm not going to tell anybody.

405
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:47,000
Well, maybe, but we could still be wrong if we were very confident that a lot of people are confidently wrong. And what are you going to do with that information? Are you going to turn

406
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:55,000
around and say, "Tell all your farmers the market's going down tomorrow. We better sell today." What if it doesn't go down and you know, everybody's mad at you? You're not g My point is, you're

407
00:45:55,000 --> 00:46:05,000
not going to do anything with the even if we were real confident and had some opinion, you're not going to do anything with it. But there's neither here nor there. For the sake of time though,

408
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:14,000
Susan, and in honor of you being our grain market discussion Facebook group afficionado, I do have a few things I wanted to share.

409
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:18,000
And I will open it up since you are an expert, but also Roger is an expert. So,

410
00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:25,000
I want to open it up to both of you guys because you guys are always setting me straight on. I'm so jealous. I keep seeing this hair.

411
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:28,000
Just quick, this is a this is a lightning round. Yeah, with that hair,

412
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:31,000
he's got to have some answers. So, What I say with this hair?

413
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:38,000
All right. First of all, these are things I've overheard. I've been at several conferences over the last month or two. Is this like quick hits?

414
00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:45,000
Yes. Uh, lightning round here. Okay. Um, is these are questions I've heard maybe.

415
00:46:45,000 --> 00:46:55,000
Uh, these are questions I've heard asked of experts by farmers and and people in the industry over the years. Uh, is there going to be a squeeze play this summer?

416
00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:57,000
I think Roger should answer this one.

417
00:46:57,000 --> 00:47:00,000
Uh, which baseball game are we talking about? What is this?

418
00:47:00,000 --> 00:47:08,000
World Baseball Classic is over. So it can't be talking about this earlier at lunch. What did I say? And you were like, "Wait, that's a squeeze play." Oh,

419
00:47:08,000 --> 00:47:10,000
if we were getting down to carry out stocks on.

420
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:13,000
Yeah. When we would get squeezed on beans and I maybe that's a squeeze.

421
00:47:13,000 --> 00:47:17,000
I was trying to come back and buy squeeze play. Is that a safety squeeze? Suicide.

422
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:25,000
I've read the history on the board of trade and back in the day old hutch. He put people in a squeeze because he bought all the weed in Chicago and

423
00:47:25,000 --> 00:47:32,000
bought all the futures contracts. So when it come time people get out, he made them pay whatever it was. That was called a squeeze. Also a cornered market.

424
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:37,000
And then he made so much money he made those cabinets you put your plates in. That's it.

425
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:41,000
And how how does the FTC feel about that now?

426
00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:48,000
No, those guys didn't exa exist back then. Okay. Oh, you're talking about the CFTC. CFTC. Yes. Okay.

427
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:51,000
Can um next question.

428
00:47:51,000 --> 00:48:00,000
Next question. I've heard I o has been overheard uh publicly on a microphone at a conference. Um China plays the board

429
00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:07,000
too. I mean we all that was just an aside as part of another first. This is something we all know. China validate

430
00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:14,000
this because I also have played risk and you can beat China on that game and you're on the board.

431
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:17,000
Touch done.

432
00:48:17,000 --> 00:48:26,000
You went to Asia. You were telling us about it earlier. That's China to me. So, you were in China. And again, the xenophobia.

433
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:27,000
So, did you play the board?

434
00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:33,000
I'm pretty sure they edited that portion out. I hope they did. They're going to edit this portion out, too.

435
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:36,000
If they don't edit when I embarrass myself, they do not edit that.

436
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:44,000
This would have been way more entertaining with a picture of beer. I'm just saying. Okay. Okay. And finally, next time. Um,

437
00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:49,000
now this is a serious question. This is why your hand in the air.

438
00:48:49,000 --> 00:48:56,000
This comes from I mean it's spiritual and this comes from a place. This comes from deep in in the heart.

439
00:48:56,000 --> 00:49:01,000
And here's what we want to know right now with all we've seen so far this year.

440
00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:07,000
I just want to know is Roth Crane's going to be glad that you're wearing their hat today. Nope.

441
00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:15,000
Let's Yeah, they don't they don't uh whatever support anything. Um, I say but seriously with everything that's

442
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:23,000
happened this year, I just want to I just want to get get serious with you guys just for a minute. Can we be serious for a minute? All right, let's talk about the markets. Okay,

443
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:25,000
something we care about all here.

444
00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:31,000
Is the market acting like it's supposed to right now? Well, here's what I'd say about that.

445
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:42,000
Sometimes I think it is acting up, but then there's other days I think it's acting down. Susan,

446
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:49,000
I don't know how I can follow the worst dad joke in the world.

447
00:49:49,000 --> 00:49:57,000
It's acting as one would expect when we're in the middle of trade war, real war,

448
00:49:57,000 --> 00:49:58,000
tweet war.

449
00:49:58,000 --> 00:50:06,000
Yeah. I mean, I it's a headline war. I don't know what else until we have that incredible summer rally. um that's

450
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:11,000
weather related. I don't really One county in Iowa was bound to burn up this year.

451
00:50:11,000 --> 00:50:14,000
We always have to kill the crop at least once, right?

452
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:16,000
Exactly. Unless it's wheat, then we kill it four times. So,

453
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:21,000
yes, that's what we've been doing to Kansas City wheat recently. I don't have an answer to that question,

454
00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:31,000
unfortunately. Especially not as good as one you guys just laid out of if the market's acting like it's supposed to. But I think about where that comes from.

455
00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:33,000
If someone asks that,

456
00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:40,000
what do we want to answer? Do we want the answer to be no so that we could start a petition?

457
00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:47,000
We should defund the markets because they're not acting like they're supposed to. Is that why would someone ask that question? How does one defund the market?

458
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:54,000
You just you got to be lines at the pit.

459
00:50:54,000 --> 00:51:00,000
I was going to say is this like a dump pit about send in ice. That's the only solution.

460
00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:05,000
That'll fix it. Um okay, they will fix it.

461
00:51:05,000 --> 00:51:12,000
There's so much editing that's going to have to happen this time. I I just want to say on behalf of Roger,

462
00:51:12,000 --> 00:51:20,000
since he's not going to say it, I appreciate you coming out and we we like having guests on this show and you're a

463
00:51:20,000 --> 00:51:28,000
great one. I appreciate all the knowledge you shared and the fun fun we had along the way. The journey is as good as a destination sometime. Are we done already?

464
00:51:28,000 --> 00:51:30,000
We're pretty much there. Uh,

465
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:38,000
were there actual topics though that we important things to Wait, see that's where the word important has no place here.

466
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:39,000
Do I get one of these?

467
00:51:39,000 --> 00:51:48,000
You can have one. Absolutely. So, I want to say if for my camera we have elevator cut podcast hats. And again,

468
00:51:48,000 --> 00:51:56,000
we're not selling these cuz we're worried about the tax man. But they're here. Susan might wear one one day if she wants. There's one. There's at least

469
00:51:56,000 --> 00:52:04,000
one left. I'll I'll put mine on if you you don't want to mess up your No, I can't. It's No, you don't have to put it on. That's

470
00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:05,000
But you can't.

471
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:16,000
I feel like We appreciate everybody listening. We appreciate Susan coming in. It's been a great show. Lots of lots of great stuff along the way. And yeah, thanks,

472
00:52:16,000 --> 00:52:24,000
Roger. Thanks for coming out. So, you drove all the way across Missouri across unspeakable sights on I7 over here.

473
00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:26,000
Thank you for making the trick. Yeah,

474
00:52:26,000 --> 00:52:32,000
there's never a dull moment because there's always something happening with a semi that requires eight recorders. So,

475
00:52:32,000 --> 00:52:40,000
could have been worse. You could have been on Southwest. So, next to a cat. Yes, that is true.

476
00:52:40,000 --> 00:52:44,000
All right. Well, thanks again for everything. And we'll catch you guys next time.

477
00:52:44,000 --> 00:52:52,000
And now they blur us out, so we just act like we're big hand gestures and stuff. And I like to sign at the bottom.

478
00:52:52,000 --> 00:52:56,000
Okay. Say that. and I I address those topics.

479
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:59,000
Let's talk about all the things that should be cut out of this episode.

480
00:52:59,000 --> 00:53:02,000
Well, if you can remember that, you got a heck of a memory.

481
00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:06,000
As always, thanks for downloading and listening. And if you haven't already,

482
00:53:06,000 --> 00:53:14,000
please subscribe to the podcast and share it with folks you know in the business. And if you'd like to reach out anytime about anything at all or have

483
00:53:14,000 --> 00:53:23,000
any show ideas, you can always find us on Twitter, ElevatorsCut. Follow us there, tweet at us, DM us, and we'll always respond. Till next time. For

484
00:53:23,000 --> 00:53:28,000
Roger, I'm Jason. And for Jason, I'm Roger. Thanks for listening to the elevators cut. Oh.